Defence and security: plans and estimates
The “National defence” section is only part of military spending. This page puts side by side what the budget laws and bills say, how much of it is classified, and how independent researchers estimate military spending, each by their own definition. Plans, outturn and estimates are never added together or joined into one line.
Explainer: “17 trillion roubles for war in 2027”: what the number is →
- “National defence”, draft budget for 2027
- ₽17.1trn
- draft bill 615-9; law 426-FZ has ₽13.5trn for 2027
- Classified part of defence, law for 2026
- ₽9.2trn
- 76% of the section; published lines: ₽2.9trn
- Military spending as SIPRI defines it, 2025
- ₽16.0trn
- 7.5% of GDP; the range is the editorial ±10%
- Defence and security, draft for 2027
- ₽21.4trn
- 44% of all spending in the draft
Plans by document
Each row is one document: a law, an amended law or a bill. The classified part of a section is the section total minus its published lines.
| Year | Document | National defence | published lines | classified part | National security | Defence and security | All spending | Defence and security, % of spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | law 540-FZ | ₽10.4trn | · | · | ₽3.3trn | ₽13.7trn | ₽36.7trn | 37.3% |
| 2024 | amended law 540-FZ as amended by 175-FZ | ₽10.4trn | · | · | ₽3.3trn | ₽13.7trn | ₽37.2trn | 36.8% |
| 2025 | law 419-FZ | ₽13.1trn | ₽2.9trn | ₽10.2trn | ₽3.4trn | ₽16.5trn | ₽41.5trn | 39.9% |
| 2025 | amended law 419-FZ as amended by 414-FZ | ₽13.6trn | ₽2.9trn | ₽10.7trn | ₽3.4trn | ₽17.0trn | ₽42.3trn | 40.2% |
| 2026 | draft bill 1026181-8 | ₽12.9trn | · | · | ₽3.9trn | ₽16.8trn | ₽44.1trn | 38.2% |
| 2026 | law 426-FZ | ₽12.1trn | ₽2.9trn | ₽9.2trn | ₽3.8trn | ₽15.9trn | ₽44.1trn | 36.2% |
| 2027 | law 426-FZ, planning year | ₽13.5trn | ₽2.4trn | ₽11.1trn | ₽4.1trn | ₽17.7trn | ₽46.1trn | 38.3% |
| 2027 | draft bill 615-9 | ₽17.1trn | · | · | ₽4.3trn | ₽21.4trn | ₽48.7trn | 44.0% |
| 2028 | law 426-FZ, planning year | ₽13.0trn | ₽2.5trn | ₽10.5trn | ₽4.3trn | ₽17.3trn | ₽49.4trn | 35.1% |
| 2028 | draft bill 615-9, planning year | ₽16.6trn | · | · | ₽4.4trn | ₽21.0trn | ₽51.0trn | 41.3% |
| 2029 | draft bill 615-9, planning year | ₽16.3trn | · | · | ₽5.0trn | ₽21.3trn | ₽53.9trn | 39.6% |
“·”: not in this document, or not computed yet. Bill 615-9's open annexes are published only on the State Duma's website, which refuses connections from abroad, so its classified part is not computed yet. The 2026 draft (bill 1026181-8) is as Cooper (SIPRI) gives it, until it is checked against the bill itself.
National defence and military spending by year
Solid lines are outturn and estimates; dashed lines are plans. The shading around an estimate is its range. Outturn by section has not been published since 2022.
Independent estimates
Each estimate has its own definition of military spending, so they cannot be added up or compared directly with the budget section. Hover over a value to see its document, file hash and archived copy.
| Period | What is measured | Value | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper, SIPRI — total military spending: “National defence” plus military spending in other sections (other defence ministry spending, pensions, social support, Rosgvardiya, the FSB border service). To 2022 from outturn, 2023–2024 the author's estimate, from 2025 from the budget laws. open | |||
| 2028 | Total military spending, from the budget law | ₽15.3trn | ₽13.8trn to ₽16.9trn |
| 2027 | Total military spending, from the budget law | ₽15.7trn | ₽14.2trn to ₽17.3trn |
| 2026 | Total military spending, from the budget law | ₽14.9trn | ₽13.4trn to ₽16.4trn |
| 2025 | Total military spending, from the budget law | ₽16.0trn | ₽14.4trn to ₽17.6trn |
| 2025 | Military spending “on the war”, % of GDP | 5.1% | 4.6% to 5.6% |
| 2024 | Total military spending, author's estimate | ₽14.4trn | ₽13.0trn to ₽15.8trn |
| SIPRI database — military spending by SIPRI's standard definition: in roubles, in US dollars, as a share of GDP and of all government spending (IMF data). open | |||
| 2025 | Military spending, ₽ | ₽16.0trn | ₽14.4trn to ₽17.6trn |
| 2025 | Military spending, % of GDP | 7.5% | 6.8% to 8.3% |
| 2025 | Military spending, % of all government spending | 19.8% | 17.8% to 21.8% |
| 2025 | Military spending, US$ at current rates | $190.4bn | $171.4bn to $209.5bn |
| 2024 | Military spending, ₽ | ₽13.8trn | ₽12.4trn to ₽15.2trn |
| 2024 | Military spending, % of GDP | 6.9% | 6.2% to 7.6% |
| 2024 | Military spending, % of all government spending | 18.6% | 16.8% to 20.5% |
| 2024 | Military spending, US$ at current rates | $149.4bn | $134.5bn to $164.3bn |
| IISS — the defence budget as IISS defines it, in US dollars at market rates; the GDP share is given as “over”. open | |||
| 2025 | Military spending, % of GDP, “over” | 7.3% | 7.3% to 8.0% |
| 2025 | Defence budget, US$ | $186.2bn | $167.6bn to $204.8bn |
| Kluge, Russianomics — military and classified spending from Minfin's monthly execution data, cumulative from January. open | |||
| January–March 2026 | Share of classified spending since January | 38.2% | 34.4% to 42.0% |
| January–March 2026 | Classified budget spending since January | ₽4.9trn | ₽4.4trn to ₽5.4trn |
| January–March 2026 | Military spending since January | ₽5.9trn | ₽5.3trn to ₽6.5trn |
| January–March 2025 | Military spending since January | ₽4.5trn | ₽4.1trn to ₽5.0trn |
| 2025 | Military spending, % of GDP | 7.8% | 7.0% to 8.6% |
| Kluge, SWP — the same definition, for the first half of the year. open | |||
| January–June 2026 | Military spending since January | ₽10.7trn | ₽9.6trn to ₽11.8trn |
| January–June 2026 | Military spending since January, % of the year's GDP | 4.7% | 4.2% to 5.2% |
| Gaidar Institute — the open and classified parts of executed spending, estimated from fragmentary data because spending by section has not been published since 2022; 2024 outturn, 2025 estimate. open | |||
| 2025 | Classified part of spending | ₽12.3trn | ₽11.0trn to ₽13.5trn |
| 2025 | Open part of spending | ₽30.6trn | ₽27.6trn to ₽33.7trn |
| 2025 | Open part of “National defence” | ₽3.2trn | ₽2.8trn to ₽3.5trn |
| 2025 | Open part of “National security” | ₽2.3trn | ₽2.1trn to ₽2.5trn |
| 2025 | Federal budget spending | ₽42.9trn | ₽38.6trn to ₽47.2trn |
| 2024 | Classified part of spending | ₽10.0trn | ₽9.0trn to ₽11.0trn |
| 2024 | Open part of spending | ₽30.2trn | ₽27.1trn to ₽33.2trn |
| 2024 | Open part of “National defence” | ₽3.5trn | ₽3.2trn to ₽3.9trn |
| 2024 | Open part of “National security” | ₽2.3trn | ₽2.1trn to ₽2.5trn |
| 2024 | Federal budget spending | ₽40.2trn | ₽36.2trn to ₽44.2trn |
| Re: Russia — payments to contract soldiers, the wounded and families of the dead, per year, for 600,000 personnel. open | |||
| 2025 | Personnel costs, per year | ₽4.0trn | ₽3.6trn to ₽4.4trn |
| Defence minister (via Cooper) — the defence minister's statement as Cooper reports it; the transcript is still to be checked. open | |||
| 2025 | Defence ministry spending, % of GDP | 7.3% | · |
Where a source gives a single figure, we show a ±10% range around it (docs/QUALITY.md) and say so in the method. Editors are still checking these sources' status in Russian registers.
What different definitions include
Different figures about “defence” often measure different things. Here is what each includes.
| Definition | Includes | Leaves out |
|---|---|---|
| Section 02 “National defence” | The armed forces, mobilisation training, the nuclear weapons complex, military-technical cooperation, applied research, “other questions”; most of it in classified annexes. | Rosgvardiya and the FSB (section 03), military pensions and social payments to service personnel (section 10), classified parts of other sections, regional payments. |
| Sections 02 and 03 together | Defence plus “National security and law enforcement”: prosecutors and the Investigative Committee, police, Rosgvardiya, the FSB, the border service, prisons, civil emergencies. | Military pensions and social payments, regional payments; section 03 also includes non-military spending such as the police, prosecutors and civil emergencies. |
| SIPRI | Armed forces, paramilitary forces, military pensions and social payments, military research (SIPRI's standard definition). | Arms recycling and mobilisation preparation of the economy; the latest year is based on the plan. |
| Cooper (SIPRI Insights) | “National defence” plus other defence ministry spending, military pensions, social support for service personnel, the classified part of “Social policy”, Rosgvardiya and the FSB border service (estimated), closed towns, Baikonur. | Regional payments; spending in what Cooper calls the “occupied regions”. |
| Kluge (SWP, Russianomics) | Spending in Minfin's execution data: “National defence” and the share of classified spending the author counts as military. | Details in the author's method; the estimate is built from Minfin's monthly data. |
| IISS | The defence budget as IISS defines it, in US dollars at market exchange rates and at purchasing power parity. | Details of the definition are in the Military Balance. |
What none of these figures include
Regional payments to contract soldiers and families, preferential loans to defence companies (not budget spending), and classified parts of other sections beyond those Cooper counts. There are only separate estimates and reports of these amounts; we will show them separately, labelled.