Method
Every number on the site carries two marks: a quality label (how far to trust it) and its document and stage (where it comes from). This page explains them.
Quality labels
Official numbers are points. Independent estimates and our own calculations are always ranges. Unverified numbers appear only on the draft version of the site.
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| Official | Published by a state body in an open document. |
| Official total, breakdown classified | Computed exactly from official numbers: a total minus its published lines. The breakdown of the remainder is classified. |
| Official, no longer published | The last value of a series that stopped being published. |
| Independent estimate | An estimate by a named outside source with a published method, shown as a range. |
| Our estimate | Our own calculation, with the method on the Method page, shown as a range. |
| Unverified | Not yet checked against a primary document. Never appears on the published site. |
Document stages
A bill can still change, a law can be amended, and execution data shows what happened. We name the stage of every number and never add a plan to an outturn.
- draft bill
- law
- amended law
- Minfin outturn estimate
- execution so far this year (preliminary)
- annual execution (Minfin data)
- official forecast
- official statistics
- independent source
- our calculation
How the classified part is computed
The budget law sets spending by section. Part of the allocations inside a section are set out in annexes marked “secret” and “top secret”. The open annexes show the other lines.
Classified part of a section = section total − the sum of its published lines. For example, for “National defence” in the 2026 law: ₽12,121.0bn − ₽2,934.4bn = ₽9,186.6bn. Julian Cooper (SIPRI) does the same calculation; we check our numbers against his table.
Where a section's split has not been computed yet, that is visible: the section is shown without hatching, with a note.
The budget laws are published on the official legal portal as scans with no text. We read their open annexes by OCR and check every number before showing it: the section rows add up to the annex's own total, no open part exceeds its section total, and “National defence” matches Julian Cooper's (SIPRI) figure from the same law.
The statement balances
For every document we check: published lines + classified part = section total; the sum of sections (with conditionally approved spending) = total spending; revenue + deficit financing = spending. The only tolerance is the rounding of the published figures.
Documents the numbers come from
For each file: where it was taken from, its SHA-256 checksum and an archived copy. Where a document cannot be reached from abroad, we use a copy and say who we read it through.
What we do not know yet
Budget execution by section has not been published since January 2022. Many lines of the laws sit in closed annexes. Some sites (the State Duma's bill database, the Electronic Budget, the Accounts Chamber, EMISS) cannot be reached from abroad.
Where there is no official number, we will show independent estimates as ranges, each with its method. The gap stays visible.