Defence / The “17 trillion” figure
“17 trillion roubles for war in 2027”: what the number is
In short
It is the “National defence” section of the draft federal budget for 2027 (draft bill 615-9): ₽17.1trn. It is a plan in a bill, not a law and not spending.
The bill was submitted to the State Duma on 30 Sep 2026. The first reading of the 2027–2029 budget bill is planned for 29 October 2026, according to Andrei Makarov, chair of the State Duma budget committee. reported
- “National defence”, draft for 2027
- ₽17.1trn
- draft bill 615-9
- The current law for 2027
- ₽13.5trn
- law 426-FZ; the draft adds ₽3.6trn (27%)
- The law for 2026
- ₽12.1trn
- the draft for 2027 is 41% higher
- Scale
- 35% of all spending in the draft
- 6.9% of GDP · ₽117,351 per resident
Per resident uses Rosstat's latest population estimate (1 January 2025; Rosstat has published none since). GDP is the one the draft is based on.
How much of it is classified
The bill's open part of the section is not computed yet: its open annexes are published only on the State Duma's website, which refuses connections from abroad.
In the current law (law 426-FZ) for 2027, ₽2.4trn is published line by line and ₽11.1trn is in classified annexes (82% of the section).
Why “for war” needs two caveats
The “National defence” section pays for more than the war in Ukraine: it also covers the nuclear weapons complex and the routine upkeep of the armed forces.
And war-related money also sits outside it: the security forces (the “National security” section), military pensions and social payments, regional payments to contract soldiers, and preferential loans to defence companies.
What else is called “17 trillion”
Several different figures are about the same size. Here is what each one is, and whether it is the same thing.
| Figure | What it is | The same thing? |
|---|---|---|
| ₽17.1trn | “National defence”, bill 615-9, 2027 | Yes, most likely |
| · | All 2027 spending not itemised in the bill's open annexes, as counted by Vërstka; not yet checked against the document | No: a different measure, including classified items in every section |
| ≈ ₽17.0trnreported | Expected defence spending in 2026, according to Bloomberg's anonymous sources | No: a different year and an anonymous source |
| ₽17.0trn | Defence and security in the amended 2025 law | No: a different year |
| ₽17.7trn | Defence and security for 2027 in the previous plan (law 426-FZ) | Close in size, but the plan it replaces |
| ₽16.0trn | Military spending in 2025 as SIPRI defines it (the same in Cooper) | No: a wider definition and a different year |
| ₽21.4trn | Defence and security together, draft for 2027 | Wider: another way to read “for war” |
Reported by Bloomberg (via ThePrint) on 7 Oct 2026, from people who asked not to be named. It is not an estimate: there is no method, and we show it only as a report.
What different definitions of “defence” include: see the Defence page.