Sandbox
Change the oil price, the exchange rate, the key rate, taxes or a section's spending, and see what happens to the deficit, the National Wealth Fund (NWF) and state debt. Every lever says who decides it. Results are ranges, from the low to the high estimate.
The baseline is draft bill 615-9: revenue ₽43.3trn, spending ₽48.7trn, deficit ₽5.4trn.
External conditions
How it is calculated
Additional oil and gas revenue in Minfin's figures (₽345.7bn in 2027) is the revenue at the forecast price ($53/bbl) minus the revenue at the base price ($50/bbl): ₽115.2bn per $1. The range runs from 20% lower to the highest value for 2028–2029 (₽189.9bn). Under the fiscal rule the change goes to the NWF.
How it is calculated
Oil and gas revenue for 2027 in Minfin's forecast (₽7,003.5bn) at 87.4 roubles to the dollar: ₽80.1bn per rouble of the rate, if revenue moved in proportion to the rate. The fuel damper and the additional income tax weaken the link: 70–100%, central 85%. The rate's effect on other revenue is not included.
Rates
How it is calculated
Floating-coupon OFZ bonds (₽11,847.0bn, Minfin) reset their coupons within the year: 80–100% of 1 pp of the rate. New borrowing in 2027 (₽6,143.4bn) is outstanding for half a year on average, at a yield that moves 50–100% of the rate.
Taxes
How it is calculated
VAT revenue in 2025 (₽14,570.6bn at a 20% rate) per point of the rate, grown with nominal GDP to 2027 (×1.16), times 60–100% (central 80%): part of the base is taxed at 10% or exempt, and a higher rate shrinks the base a little. One-off rise in prices: 0.3–0.6 pp per point of the rate (full pass-through on goods at the standard rate gives about 0.6).
How it is calculated
Profit tax paid to the federal budget in 2025 (₽3,936.6bn at the 8% federal rate) per point, grown with nominal GDP to 2027 (×1.16), times 60–100% (central 80%): investment deductions and reduced rates.
Spending by section
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How it is calculated
A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one.
How the deficit is covered
How it is calculated
The share of any extra deficit paid from the NWF's liquid part instead of borrowing: a choice, not an estimate.
How it works
Each lever changes one line of the draft budget for 2027. The coefficient is the change in that line, in billions of roubles, per unit of the lever: the central estimate, with the low to high range under it. The figures it is computed from are linked.
| Lever | Who decides | Coefficient, ₽bn | Label | Method and inputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urals oil price | World market the price is set on the world oil market | ₽115.2bn ₽92.2bn – ₽189.9bn per dollar of the barrel price | Our estimate | Additional oil and gas revenue in Minfin's figures (₽345.7bn in 2027) is the revenue at the forecast price ($53/bbl) minus the revenue at the base price ($50/bbl): ₽115.2bn per $1. The range runs from 20% lower to the highest value for 2028–2029 (₽189.9bn). Under the fiscal rule the change goes to the NWF. Inputs: ₽345.7bn (2027), ₽379.9bn (2028), ₽158.4bn (2029), $53/bbl (2027), $52/bbl (2028), $51/bbl (2029), $50/bbl (2027), $50/bbl (2028), $50/bbl (2029) |
| US dollar rate | World market the rate is set on the currency market | ₽68.1bn ₽56.1bn – ₽80.1bn per rouble of the rate | Our estimate | Oil and gas revenue for 2027 in Minfin's forecast (₽7,003.5bn) at 87.4 roubles to the dollar: ₽80.1bn per rouble of the rate, if revenue moved in proportion to the rate. The fuel damper and the additional income tax weaken the link: 70–100%, central 85%. The rate's effect on other revenue is not included. Inputs: ₽7,003.5bn (2027), 87.4 ₽/$ (2027) |
| Key rate | Bank of Russia decided by the Bank of Russia's board of directors | ₽129.7bn ₽110.1bn – ₽149.2bn per percentage point | Our estimate | Floating-coupon OFZ bonds (₽11,847.0bn, Minfin) reset their coupons within the year: 80–100% of 1 pp of the rate. New borrowing in 2027 (₽6,143.4bn) is outstanding for half a year on average, at a yield that moves 50–100% of the rate. Inputs: ₽11,847.0bn (2026-10-01), ₽6,143.4bn (2027), 14% (2026-07-27) |
| VAT, standard rate | Federal law the Tax Code, a federal law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽675.5bn ₽506.6bn – ₽844.4bn per percentage point | Our estimate | VAT revenue in 2025 (₽14,570.6bn at a 20% rate) per point of the rate, grown with nominal GDP to 2027 (×1.16), times 60–100% (central 80%): part of the base is taxed at 10% or exempt, and a higher rate shrinks the base a little. One-off rise in prices: 0.3–0.6 pp per point of the rate (full pass-through on goods at the standard rate gives about 0.6). Inputs: ₽14,570.6bn (2025), ₽214,261.0bn (2025), ₽248,323.0bn (2027) |
| Profit tax, federal rate | Federal law the Tax Code, a federal law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽456.2bn ₽342.2bn – ₽570.3bn per percentage point | Our estimate | Profit tax paid to the federal budget in 2025 (₽3,936.6bn at the 8% federal rate) per point, grown with nominal GDP to 2027 (×1.16), times 60–100% (central 80%): investment deductions and reduced rates. Inputs: ₽3,936.6bn (2025), ₽214,261.0bn (2025), ₽248,323.0bn (2027) |
| “National defence” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| “National security and law enforcement” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| “Social policy” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| “Education” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| “Health” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| “National economy” | Federal law the federal budget law: passed by the State Duma and the Federation Council, signed by the President | ₽1.0bn ₽1.0bn per billion roubles of spending | Official | A change in the section's spending changes the deficit one for one. |
| Share of extra deficit paid from the NWF | Government decided by the Government (Budget Code, article 96.10) | a choice | Our estimate | The share of any extra deficit paid from the NWF's liquid part instead of borrowing: a choice, not an estimate. |
Baseline: Minfin's forecast
GDP, state debt and the NWF's liquid part come from Minfin's “Main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policy”, published with the draft budget.
| Year | GDP | State debt | State debt, % of GDP | NWF, liquid part |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ₽248.3trn | ₽54.0trn | 21.7% | ₽5.5trn |
| 2028 | ₽263.7trn | ₽61.1trn | 23.2% | ₽6.4trn |
| 2029 | ₽281.7trn | ₽68.0trn | 24.1% | ₽6.8trn |
Population: 146.1 million · key rate now: 14%
Limits
- The model is simple: the first year's change is carried to every year of the forecast, with no feedback to growth, inflation or the exchange rate.
- The coefficients for oil, the exchange rate, taxes and the key rate are our estimates from Minfin's figures. We found no official estimates of the budget's sensitivity.
- The Urals price is the forecast export price from the “Main directions”. We do not have the Urals price used for taxes yet: the Ministry of Economic Development's site does not answer requests from abroad.
- A section's spending includes its classified part. The lever changes the section's total and does not say which part of the change is open.
- A scenario link keeps only the lever positions, in the page address. Nothing is sent to a server.
- Without JavaScript the page shows the baseline and every table.