People: how many are born, how many die, and what Rosstat forecasts
Births and deaths from Rosstat, and Rosstat's demographic forecast to 2046 in three variants: low, medium and high. The medium is the line, the range between the other two the band. It is Rosstat's forecast on its assumptions, not our estimate.
- Born in 2023
- 1,264 thousand
- In 1990: 1,989 thousand
- Died in 2023
- 1,765 thousand
- 500 thousand more than were born
- Population in 2046, medium forecast variant
- 138,771 thousand
- 146,080 thousand in 2024; low variant 130,596, high 150,872 thousand
- People over working age per 1,000 of working age, 2046
- 468
- 407 in 2024; forecast variants from 461 to 514
Births and deaths
People born and died in a year, thousands: Rosstat's figures, then Rosstat's forecast (the medium variant dashed, the band from the low to the high variant).
- Births
- Deaths
- Rosstat's forecast: medium variant; band from low to high
| Year | Births | Deaths | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1,989 | 1,656 | 333 |
| 1995 | 1,364 | 2,204 | −840 |
| 2000 | 1,267 | 2,225 | −959 |
| 2005 | 1,457 | 2,304 | −847 |
| 2010 | 1,789 | 2,029 | −240 |
| 2015 | 1,941 | 1,909 | 32 |
| 2019 | 1,481 | 1,798 | −317 |
| 2020 | 1,437 | 2,139 | −702 |
| 2021 | 1,398 | 2,442 | −1,043 |
| 2022 | 1,304 | 1,899 | −595 |
| 2023 | 1,264 | 1,765 | −500 |
| Rosstat's forecast: medium variant, low to high in brackets | |||
| 2024 (forecast) | 1,172 (1,158–1,265) | 1,847 (1,764–1,878) | −675 |
| 2029 (forecast) | 1,172 (1,098–1,214) | 1,838 (1,642–1,970) | −666 |
| 2034 (forecast) | 1,267 (1,140–1,335) | 1,824 (1,513–2,040) | −558 |
| 2039 (forecast) | 1,389 (1,212–1,498) | 1,835 (1,464–2,085) | −446 |
| 2044 (forecast) | 1,426 (1,222–1,590) | 1,832 (1,488–2,036) | −405 |
| 2045 (forecast) | 1,426 (1,213–1,599) | 1,829 (1,495–2,026) | −402 |
Deaths in the war in Ukraine
How many Russian military personnel have died since the start of the war in Ukraine. Independent estimates are built differently, so each is shown on its own and they are not added together. The Ministry of Defence last gave a death toll in 2022.
Confirmed by name
at least 276,113 people as of 9 Oct 2026
Deaths whose names are confirmed in public sources and state registers. A floor, not an estimate of the total.
Mediazona and BBC News Russian: Russia's losses in the war with Ukraine, list of the dead by name, 9 Oct 2026; on the "foreign agents" register (checked 9 Oct 2026)Estimates of total deaths
- 483,695 to 591,182 (midpoint 537,438)BBC News Russian: the number of names divided by the share of deaths the list covers, in experts' judgement. Excludes the "DPR" and "LPR" forces at the start of the war and North Korean troops. Method details in the figure's source.BBC News Russian: estimate of total deaths from the named list, 2 Oct 2026, 2 Oct 2026; status on Russian registers not checked yet
- 316,800 to 387,200 (midpoint 352,000)Mediazona with Meduza: an estimate from the probate registry, men of working age. The source gives one number; the band is our standard editorial range. Linked through Mediazona's page only (decision D13).Mediazona: probate-registry estimate, with Meduza (linked through Mediazona's page only, decision D13), 9 May 2026, 31 Dec 2025; on the "foreign agents" register (checked 9 Oct 2026)
- 450,000 to 550,000 (midpoint 500,000)UK government: an intelligence assessment given by the Director of GCHQ ("almost half a million" killed); method not published. The source gives one number; the band is our standard editorial range.GCHQ (UK): Director's annual lecture, 27 May 2026, 27 May 2026
Russian Ministry of Defence
5,937
The last death toll the defence minister gave, 21 Sep 2022 (via RIA Novosti). The ministry has published no such figure since.
Not shown: CSIS's estimates (it is on the "undesirable organisations" list), killed-and-wounded totals (a different measure), and figures known only from press reports.
How many people are over working age
Per 1,000 people of working age: people over working age, and all those not of working age (children and older people), in Rosstat's forecast.
- Over working age
- Not of working age (children and older)
| Year | Over working age | Not of working age (children and older) |
|---|---|---|
| Rosstat's forecast: medium variant, low to high in brackets | ||
| 2024 | 407 (407–407) | 724 (724–724) |
| 2029 | 375 (375–377) | 648 (646–653) |
| 2034 | 384 (383–393) | 619 (611–631) |
| 2039 | 407 (402–429) | 641 (622–669) |
| 2044 | 446 (439–485) | 706 (677–750) |
| 2046 | 468 (461–514) | 740 (709–793) |
Fertility and life expectancy
The total fertility rate (children per woman) and life expectancy at birth: Rosstat's figures and Rosstat's forecast.
| Year | Children per woman | Life expectancy, years |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.20 | 65.3 |
| 2005 | 1.29 | 65.4 |
| 2010 | 1.57 | 68.9 |
| 2015 | 1.78 | 71.4 |
| 2017 | 1.62 | 72.7 |
| 2018 | 1.58 | 72.9 |
| 2019 | 1.50 | 73.3 |
| 2020 | 1.51 | 71.5 |
| 2021 | 1.51 | 70.1 |
| Rosstat's forecast: medium variant, low to high in brackets | ||
| 2024 (forecast) | 1.32 (1.31–1.42) | 73.5 (73.2–74.3) |
| 2029 (forecast) | 1.45 (1.37–1.48) | 75.4 (74.0–77.4) |
| 2034 (forecast) | 1.56 (1.42–1.63) | 77.2 (74.8–80.3) |
| 2039 (forecast) | 1.64 (1.45–1.73) | 78.6 (75.8–82.5) |
| 2044 (forecast) | 1.66 (1.46–1.78) | 79.7 (77.0–84.3) |
| 2045 (forecast) | 1.66 (1.46–1.79) | 79.8 (77.2–84.6) |
How to read
- The figures are Rosstat's tables: births and deaths (file of 22 Jan 2025) and the demographic forecast to 2046 (files of 26 Dec 2023).
- The forecast is Rosstat's, not ours. The three variants differ in their assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and migration; on the charts the band runs from the low to the high variant and the line is the medium.
- Rosstat's footnote says the forecast is made "without the population living in Russia's new regions" (in Rosstat's words: the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts).
- Rosstat's annual tables of births and deaths in these files end in 2023. What Rosstat stopped publishing is listed on the method page.
- Working age as Rosstat sets it: from 16 to pension age, which a 2018 law raises to 65 for men and 60 for women.
OfficialRosstat's official figures and forecast. archived copy of the forecast
Questions
- Is this the site's forecast?
- No. Every forecast line is Rosstat's demographic forecast, published in December 2023. We show its three variants unchanged.
- Why three variants?
- Rosstat computes a low, a medium and a high variant with different assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and migration. The spread shows how much the result depends on the assumptions.
- Which territories are in the figures?
- Rosstat's footnotes say its births and deaths from 2014 "include the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol", and that the forecast is made "without the population living in Russia's new regions".
- Where are the losses in the war?
- In its own section on this page: deaths confirmed by name, independent estimates of the total (each with its definition, range and date), and the Ministry of Defence's last figure, from 2022.
- What does "over working age" mean?
- People above the working-age limit Rosstat sets in the forecast: in 2024, men from 63 and women from 58; by the end of the forecast, from 65 and 60.